GradeOrFlip
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What chance of a 10 do you need for grading to pay off?

As a rule of thumb, if a 10 sells for 3× raw and a 9 for 1.3× raw, a $50 card needs well over a coin-flip chance of a 10 at PSA Standard to beat selling raw. Cheaper cards and smaller multiples need even higher odds.

Raw value10 sells for 2× raw10 sells for 3× raw10 sells for 5× raw10 sells for 10× raw
$20 rawnevernevernever42.9%
$50 rawnever77.3%35.5%15.1%
$100 raw72.4%29.8%13.7%5.8%
$300 raw6.5%2.7%1.2%0.5%

Assumptions: $5 shipping to the grader and $5 back per card, $5 shipping to the buyer, standard eBay trading-card fees (13.25% + $0.40 per order, $0.30 at $10 or less), no sales tax. Fees checked Oct 14, 2026. Change any of these in the calculator.

Assumes PSA Standard ($59.99) for cards up to $1,000 declared and Priority ($79.99) above; a 9 sells for 1.3× raw. “never” = even a guaranteed 10 does not beat selling raw.

Odds of 10 needed = (raw profit − profit if not a 10) ÷ (profit at 10 − profit if not a 10)

The calculator shows this number for your own card and grade odds.

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