Worked example (assumptions you can change)
The card costs and sells raw for $120. Assumed graded sale prices are multiples of raw: 10 = 2.6×, 9 = 1.2×, 8 = 0.8×, 7 or lower = 0.6×, with grade odds of 30% / 45% / 18% / 7%. These are illustrative, not market data: replace them with sold comps and your own read of the card.
| Grade | Odds | Sells for | eBay fee | Profit after all costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 30% | $312.00 | $41.74 | $115.26 |
| 9 | 45% | $144.00 | $19.48 | -$30.48 |
| 8 | 18% | $96.00 | $13.12 | -$72.12 |
| 7 or lower | 7% | $72.00 | $9.94 | -$92.94 |
All-in cost: $120.00 card + $20.00 CGC fee (Economy (90 working days)) + $10 round-trip shipping = $150.00. Odds-weighted profit = $1.37; selling raw nets -$21.30. To beat selling raw, the chance of a 10 must be about 16.1% with the other grades keeping their relative odds.
Cheapest eligible tier at each grader
| Grader | Tier | Fee | Break-even sale | Expected profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGC | Economy (90 working days) | $20.00 | $179.13 | $1.37 |
| SGC | Standard, up to $1,500 (40+ days) | $50.00 | $213.72 | -$28.63 |
| PSA | Standard (90-100 business days) | $59.99 | $225.23 | -$38.62 |
| BGS | Express (15 business days) | $79.95 | $248.24 | -$58.58 |
Assumptions: $5 shipping to the grader and $5 back per card, $5 shipping to the buyer, standard eBay trading-card fees (13.25% + $0.40 per order, $0.30 at $10 or less), no sales tax. Fees checked October 14, 2026. Change any of these in the calculator.
What differs for modern chrome refractors
Chrome stock shows surface lines, print dots and chipped edges easily, and refractor coating can hide or exaggerate them, so tilt the card under a bright light. Centering on borderless designs is hard to judge, so measure the visible border. Gem rates vary a lot by product; check the grader’s population report for the exact card before assuming a 10.
Grader acceptance and category rules change: confirm on the grader’s own site (PSA · SGC · BGS · CGC). Fees checked October 14, 2026.
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